"Forecasting services for the pharmaceutical industries"^TM

Development Pipeline Performance Analysis (DPPA^TM)
The following is an example of DPPA: Future output from a current pharma development pipeline.

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Output from the current development pipeline of a mid-sized pharmaceutical company
-Example-
 

Forecasted output:
x-axis: future years
y-axis: number of first launches per year

Explanation

Status

This is a medium sized pharmaceutical company, according to general terms. Pipeline information originates from Oct 2005.

Result

The chart begins with the year 2006 and ranges to 2015. All New Medical Entity (NME) projects as of Oct 2005 were evaluated with public domain performance criteria. The result is reflected in estimated output per year. The color of the stacked bars represent the stage, a project is currently in.

• This company will have (far) less than one first product launch per year over the next 10 years, based on the status as of "today".

• There are a serious gap after 2007 and obviously no late stage projects in the pipeline.

• The current flow of new early projects will only improve the situation (a little) after 2010.

• At about 2011, the company will have launched 50% of all launchable projects.

Consequence

This company MUST look for sources of new projects; the current supply chain is insufficient!
If the business model will not change, there is a high risk for this company to become redundant.
 

All pages (c) Dr. Wolfgang Seifert, 2006
Last update: 27.06.08